Updated
Updated · DW (English) · Jul 16
S&P Warns Indonesia of Downgrade Risk as $46.1 Billion Debt and Fiscal Strains Mount
Updated
Updated · DW (English) · Jul 16

S&P Warns Indonesia of Downgrade Risk as $46.1 Billion Debt and Fiscal Strains Mount

3 articles · Updated · DW (English) · Jul 16

Summary

  • S&P Global Ratings said on July 9 that Indonesia could face a downgrade, citing market-transparency concerns that add to mounting worries over the country’s fiscal credibility.
  • Fuel-subsidy costs surged after the Strait of Hormuz closure, forcing policymakers to find at least $6 billion more on top of a roughly $22 billion budgeted subsidy bill.
  • The rupiah has fallen 8% to near 18,000 per dollar, Jakarta stocks have dropped by a third, and foreign funds have sold a net $3.9 billion of equities this year.
  • Prabowo Subianto’s spending push has sharpened investor concern because about a quarter of 2026 tax revenue is expected to go to interest payments, while 834 trillion rupiah in government debt matures this year.
  • Moody’s and Fitch already cut Indonesia’s outlook to negative, and a broader downgrade could push the G20 economy off many emerging-market investors’ radar, reviving unease last seen around the 1997-98 crisis.

Insights

Is Indonesia's new $1 trillion fund a reckless gamble or the key to its ambitious 8% growth target?
Can Prabowo's trillion-dollar plan save Indonesia's economy or will it repeat the 1998 financial crisis?