Indonesia Saprolite Ore Falls 14% to $70/wmt as Limonite HPM Cut Nears

1 articles · Updated · indopremier.com · Jul 16

$70/wmt saprolite ore prices in Indonesia have slipped below the benchmark after falling 14% from an $80/wmt peak, with average selling prices seen weakening further in 3Q26.
Lower LME nickel prices below $18,000/ton, NPI smelters' limited ability to absorb higher ore costs, and better weather after a wet first half have all increased pressure on ore prices.
Limonite is now the market's next focus, with recent deals clearing below the official HPM of $40-$45/wmt and industry feedback pointing to a revised formula closer to $25-$30/wmt.
RKAB nickel ore quotas are still being restrained to avoid oversupply, with total approved volumes at 260-270 million wmt and only 30-40 million wmt of additional quota expected.
A lower limonite HPM would reduce royalty and corporate income tax burdens for integrated sellers, even as the sector outlook stays positive on easing regulatory risk and longer-term commodity strength.