Updated

Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jul 16

23 MLB Teams Stay Within 4 Games of Playoff Spots, Clouding Aug. 3 Trade Deadline

Updated

Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jul 16

23 MLB Teams Stay Within 4 Games of Playoff Spots, Clouding Aug. 3 Trade Deadline

Q: Which contender will pay the high price to acquire a star in this unprecedented MLB seller's market?

The Los Angeles Dodgers look like the most likely contender to pay the premium for a true star, especially if Tarik Skubal is actually made available. The case is straightforward: this deadline is shaping up as a seller’s market because so few teams are clearly out of the race, and Skubal is widely viewed as the best player who could move. The Dodgers have the rare combination of urgency, money and prospect depth to win that kind of bidding. Multiple reports in the background material point to them as uniquely equipped for a Skubal deal, with a deep farm system, major-league needs on the mound and the motivation of chasing another title. Detroit’s position only raises the price. The Tigers are just 3 1/2 games out of the last AL wild card after a strong rebound, so they have no reason to move Skubal cheaply. If they sell, they can demand an outsized return for a two-time Cy Young winner, even with his pending free agency and recent return from elbow surgery. That favors a club like Los Angeles, which can absorb both the financial cost and the prospect hit better than most rivals. The Phillies, Yankees, Padres, Rays and Braves all make sense as aggressive buyers, and Philadelphia in particular has the urgency to add. But the searched material most consistently identifies the Dodgers as the team best positioned — and most capable — of paying the highest price for the market’s biggest star.

Q: Should the Tigers trade ace Tarik Skubal or gamble on a playoff run before he becomes a free agent?

The Tigers should trade Tarik Skubal unless they make a clear, sustained push in the next two weeks that materially improves their playoff odds. Detroit’s recent surge has made the decision harder. After falling to 22-38, the Tigers went 22-14 and entered the second half only 3 1/2 games out of the last AL wild card. In an expanded playoff field where 23 teams are within four games of a spot, that keeps them relevant. Skubal also gives them a legitimate front-line starter for any short series, and Detroit has recent experience making up long odds. But the stronger case still points to selling. Skubal is headed for free agency after the World Series, so his trade value is at its peak now. Detroit’s overall record remains below .500, and the roster still has clear flaws, especially a bullpen that has blown 19 saves, the most in the American League. That is a major problem for a team trying to convert a fringe wild-card chase into a real October run. Skubal himself has only recently returned from elbow surgery, adding some performance and durability uncertainty. The market also favors sellers because so many teams still believe they can contend. That should increase the return for a top-of-the-rotation arm. If Detroit holds Skubal and misses the playoffs, it risks losing its best asset for no meaningful return. The practical play is to trade him for a premium package, while remaining open to smaller buy-side moves only if the club closes the gap decisively before Aug. 3.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jul 16

Twenty-three of 30 clubs enter the second half within four games of a playoff berth, leaving far fewer clear sellers ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
That crowded race has put possible trade chips such as Detroit ace Tarik Skubal in limbo; the Tigers have gone 22-14 since June 1 and sit 3 1/2 games behind the last AL wild card.
Minnesota's Joe Ryan and the Mets' Freddy Peralta also could become available, but only seven teams are more than four games out of a wild-card spot, limiting obvious teardown candidates.
The compressed standings extend beyond the bubble: only the Dodgers, up 11 1/2 games, and Milwaukee, up five, lead divisions by more than three games.
The format also raises the value of finishing high enough for a first-round bye, which lets contenders reset rotations and sharpen the stakes of every game before the deadline.