Kalshi Traders Raise Odds of $4 US Gas to 90% as Iran Strikes Lift Oil
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 15
Kalshi Traders Raise Odds of $4 US Gas to 90% as Iran Strikes Lift Oil
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 15
Summary
Odds of U.S. gasoline topping $4 a gallon by month-end jumped to 90% on Kalshi from 56% in two days; traders also price a 63% chance of prices exceeding $4.10.
AAA put Wednesday's national average at $3.89, up about 3 cents from Tuesday, leaving the market within 11 cents of the $4 threshold the contract tracks.
U.S. Central Command said it launched a second wave of strikes on Iran on Wednesday after an earlier round, targeting capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil has risen for three straight days, with August WTI settling at $79.60 a barrel and September Brent at $84.95, though Kalshi still assigns less than a 5% chance of gas topping $4.50 this month.