Updated

Updated · Fox News · Jul 15

Geoff Clark Backs Jon Rahm at +2487 for 154th Open, Risks 2.41 Units at Royal Birkdale

Updated

Updated · Fox News · Jul 15

Geoff Clark Backs Jon Rahm at +2487 for 154th Open, Risks 2.41 Units at Royal Birkdale

Q: After a rare missed cut, is world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler truly vulnerable at The Open?

Scheffler looks more beatable than usual at Royal Birkdale, but not truly exposed. He remains the favorite because his overall level is still elite, even if the aura of inevitability has faded. The missed cut at the Scottish Open matters because it was his first in 79 events and came with uncharacteristically poor approach play, the part of his game that normally separates him from the field. There is broader evidence of a slight dip: his strokes-gained edge is smaller than last season, his iron play is no longer overwhelmingly better than everyone else’s, and his margin for error has narrowed as rivals such as Rory McIlroy, Tom Kim and others arrive in stronger form. Royal Birkdale could test that vulnerability. The course is expected to play firm and fast, with narrowed fairways, strategic demands off the tee and heavy emphasis on precise approaches in wind. Scheffler himself has noted how firm it feels. If his irons are merely good rather than dominant, that reduces his advantage on a links setup that rewards control and creativity. Still, the evidence against a major slide is stronger. He is still world No. 1, still the betting favorite at around +750, still among the leaders in scoring and strokes gained, and he has finished top 25 in all five of his Open starts. One missed cut after nearly four years is more anomaly than trend. So the answer is yes, he is vulnerable in a relative sense. But he is not suddenly fragile; he is still the player the field must beat.

Q: Can Jordan Spieth's past Royal Birkdale magic overcome his current season's struggles?

Probably not by itself, though it could be enough to make Jordan Spieth a safer weekend bet than a true title pick. The case for Spieth is real. Royal Birkdale is the site of his 2017 Open win, one of the defining rounds of his career, and his Open record remains unusually strong: he has made the cut in all 12 of his starts and has seven top-25 finishes in his last eight Open Championships. SportsLine’s model, after 10,000 simulations, likes him to make the cut and projects another top-25 finish. On a firm, fast Birkdale that rewards creativity, trajectory control and links experience, Spieth’s imagination and course comfort still matter. But his current form is the bigger story. He is outside the elite tier at No. 51 in the world, has no top-10 finish in 2026, and has not seriously contended in a major for several years. His season-long numbers are modest rather than threatening, with middling strokes-gained rankings off the tee and on approach, and his inconsistency has shown up week to week. Even Spieth has acknowledged that he has not put all parts of his game together consistently enough. So Birkdale history gives him a plausible path to outperform his season baseline, especially over two rounds or for a top-25 result. But expecting his 2017 magic to fully override 2026 struggles and carry him to the Claret Jug would require a major turnaround that the recent evidence does not yet support.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Jul 15

Clark’s Open card centers on Jon Rahm to win at +2487 and finish top 10 at +217, with Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Robert MacIntyre also making his shortlist.
Royal Birkdale’s 11th Open is expected to play firm and fast in U.K. heat nearing the 80s, pushing Clark toward accurate ball-strikers and strong links performers.
Rahm’s case rests on two LIV wins, a PGA Championship runner-up, and a run of strong Open results including T2 in 2023 and T7 in 2024 despite uneven major form this season.
Morikawa, Thomas and MacIntyre were picked for their fit on a baked-out links setup, while Clark named MacIntyre his one-and-done play after the Scot’s T6 at last week’s Scottish Open.
Clark said he is down 51 units on PGA Tour bets this season, staking 2.41 units on outright winners and 3 units on top-5, top-10 and top-20 positions this week.