33.8 mcm/d of Gazprom gas reached Europe in June, down 24% from May, with maintenance cited as the main driver of the monthly slump.
49.1% of EU storage capacity was filled by June 30, up from 40.1% a month earlier but still the weakest late-June level since 2021 and below the 2021-2025 average.
Weak LNG inflows and a negative summer-winter price spread slowed injections, giving European buyers little incentive to outbid Asia for spot cargoes.
Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz further constrained LNG movements, even as Norwegian supply stayed strong and US LNG flows remained steady.
TTF and JKM gas prices fell in June, but the thin storage cushion leaves Europe exposed to renewed volatility and potentially greater reliance on Russian gas this winter.
Has Europe's pivot from Russian gas created a more dangerous dependency on volatile maritime chokepoints?
Amid a global gas crunch and war, is Europe on a collision course with a catastrophic winter energy crisis?
Europe’s Precarious Gas Outlook for Winter 2026/27: Storage Deficits, LNG Market Shocks, and Policy Responses
Overview
Europe is facing a significant challenge in securing its gas supply for the upcoming winter, as storage levels are alarmingly low and injection rates are lagging behind. This situation is the result of a particularly harsh preceding winter and ongoing geopolitical risks that continue to destabilize energy markets. The replenishment season, which began in April, has proven exceptionally difficult, leaving storage facilities well below average levels. As a result, the coming weeks are critical for both national preparedness and EU-wide solidarity to mitigate potential supply disruptions and ensure energy security across the continent.