VanEck Backs Gold Miners After 46% Rally as Gold Holds 22% Gain Above $4,000

1 articles · Updated · Kitco NEWS · Jul 14

Mining equities have climbed nearly 46% over the past 12 months, outpacing gold’s roughly 22% rise and the S&P 500’s 22%, prompting VanEck’s Imaru Casanova to call them the standout trade.
Gold has consolidated above $4,000 an ounce as markets price in one possible Fed rate hike this year, but Casanova said the recent pullback is short-term noise rather than a break in the longer-term bull case.
Consensus forecasts still put average annual gold prices around $4,700 in 2026 and 2027, with estimates staying above $4,000 through 2029 even after banks trimmed year-end targets.
June CPI helped that argument: headline inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.2% and core to 2.6% from 2.9%, a backdrop Casanova said could keep the Fed on hold and support gold through lower real rates.
At current prices, miners are generating record cash flow—Q1 earnings reflected gold averaging about $4,700 in 2026 against all-in sustaining costs below $2,000—leaving room for growth, dividends and buybacks.