Dollar Eyes Gains as Fed July Hike Odds Hit 42% on Oil Surge
Updated
Updated · litefinance.org · Jul 14
Dollar Eyes Gains as Fed July Hike Odds Hit 42% on Oil Surge
3 articles · Updated · litefinance.org · Jul 14
Summary
Fed hike odds for the next FOMC meeting jumped to 42% from 18% at the start of the month, reinforcing a stronger-dollar view and pressuring EUR/USD lower.
Christopher Waller said a rate increase should stay on the table as early as July if June core CPI accelerates, adding to already hawkish Fed rhetoric.
Brent crude’s sharpest rally since the pandemic has compounded that pressure after Middle East tensions intensified and Donald Trump called for a 20% fee to guarantee Strait of Hormuz security.
June CPI is now the key trigger: stronger core inflation could send EUR/USD toward 1.13, while a softer reading could support euro buying near the 1.137-1.147 range.
Apollo flagged foreign outflows from AI-linked US stocks as a dollar risk, but the report argues geopolitics and tightening expectations remain the dominant drivers.