OPEC Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 780,000 BPD as Gulf Supply Rebounds
Updated
Updated · OilPrice.com · Jul 13
OPEC Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 780,000 BPD as Gulf Supply Rebounds
3 articles · Updated · OilPrice.com · Jul 13
Summary
OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by 190,000 barrels per day to 780,000 bpd, marking its third straight monthly downgrade.
June OPEC+ output jumped about 3 million bpd from May to 36.28 million bpd as Gulf producers moved stranded crude again after the Strait of Hormuz partially reopened.
The mismatch is widening because supply is recovering faster than consumption: U.S. output is near 14 million bpd, and the UAE pumped a record 4.1 million bpd in June.
OPEC still projects stronger demand than the IEA and raised its 2027 growth estimate by 210,000 bpd to 1.94 million bpd, citing possible support from easing geopolitical tensions.
Hormuz traffic remains below pre-war levels, insurance costs are elevated, and fresh strikes still threaten regional energy infrastructure, leaving the recovery fragile.