France Edges Spain in World Cup Odds at 39.5% as Mbappe Expected Fit for Semifinal
Updated
Updated · syracuse.com · Jul 14
France Edges Spain in World Cup Odds at 39.5% as Mbappe Expected Fit for Semifinal
3 articles · Updated · syracuse.com · Jul 14
Summary
Dimers’ 10,000 simulations make France a slight favorite for Tuesday’s World Cup semifinal in Arlington, giving Les Bleus a 39.5% chance to win while Polymarket puts their regulation win probability at 41%.
Kylian Mbappe, substituted in the 77th minute against Morocco with an ankle issue, said he is “completely fine,” easing the biggest fitness concern before France chase a third straight World Cup final.
France also expect Manu Kone to be available after a minor knee issue and fatigue, but Aurelien Tchouameni is less certain after missing the last two matches with a muscle injury.
Spain should have Yeremy Pino and Nico Williams back in selection, setting up a matchup between two deep squads with a final berth on the line at 3 p.m. EST at AT&T Stadium.
The model’s top betting play is under 2.5 goals, even as Polymarket prices a 51% chance that the match produces more than 2.5 goals.