Fed Minutes Put 2026 Rate Hike on Table as Markets Price 81.9% Chance Above Current Range
Updated
Updated · The Motley Fool · Jul 13
Fed Minutes Put 2026 Rate Hike on Table as Markets Price 81.9% Chance Above Current Range
3 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · Jul 13
Summary
June Fed minutes showed policymakers are considering a 2026 interest-rate hike rather than cuts, a notable shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell in May.
CME FedWatch data put an 81.9% probability on the fed funds rate ending December above its current target range, reflecting expectations of tighter policy.
The minutes pointed to a resilient labor market and inflation pressure tied to the Middle East conflict as reasons rates may need to stay higher.
For investors, the report argued that long-term portfolio strategy should not hinge on Fed moves, noting the S&P 500 has returned 319% over the past decade across varied rate environments.