US Inflation Hits 4.2% as Iran War Lifts Energy Costs, Not Toward 9%
Updated
Updated · Washington Examiner · Jul 13
US Inflation Hits 4.2% as Iran War Lifts Energy Costs, Not Toward 9%
3 articles · Updated · Washington Examiner · Jul 13
Summary
4.2% headline inflation last month has revived fears of a 2022-style price surge, but economists say the current run-up is likely near its peak in the low 4s.
Energy is driving the jump: inflation climbed from 2.4% in January as oil and gasoline rose after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted by the Iran war.
2.9% core inflation, which strips out food and energy, suggests broader price pressures remain more contained than during the post-pandemic inflation wave.
3.50% to 3.75% Fed rates and a projected 3.6% year-end PCE reading point to tighter policy than in 2021-22, when near-zero rates and massive stimulus helped push inflation near 9%.
76% market odds of another Fed hike before November reflect a still-resilient economy, with 57,000 jobs added last month and unemployment at 4.2%.