Goldman Sees June Core CPI Easing to 2.8% as Headline Inflation Falls to 3.87%

2 articles · Updated · investinglive.com · Jul 13

Goldman Sachs expects June core CPI to rise 0.17% month on month, below the 0.2% consensus, easing the annual rate to 2.8% from 2.9%.
A 4.4% drop in energy prices is seen pulling headline CPI down 0.11% on the month and lowering the year-on-year rate to 3.87% from 4.25%, even as core inflation stays relatively firm.
Soft autos and shelter drive the forecast: Goldman sees used car prices down 0.5%, owners' equivalent rent up 0.23%, and rent up 0.17%, with only moderate travel-price gains.
The bank still estimates core PCE will rise 0.24% in June because financial services should contribute more there than in CPI after May's equity rally filtered through with a lag.
Tuesday's CPI report lands hours before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies to the House, giving markets a fresh read on whether his recent dovish remarks outweigh the Fed's warnings on tariffs and war-driven energy costs.