CBS Sports Experts Split on 2026 Home Run Derby Winner as Schwarber Leads at +310

Q: With no clock, will the new swing-based format lead to record-breaking power or a less exciting contest?

It is more likely to produce fewer total home runs but a better chance at spectacular individual blasts. The new Derby format removes the clock and gives hitters 20 swings in the first round and 15 in the semifinals and final, with an extension only if the last swing is a homer. That sharply limits volume compared with the timed era, so records such as Julio Rodríguez’s 41 homers in a round or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 91 in a Derby are widely viewed as out of reach. What the format may increase is the quality of contact. With no timer, hitters can reset, wait for better pitches and avoid the fatigue that often turned later rounds into rushed, sloppy swings. That matters in a park like Citizens Bank Park, one of baseball’s most homer-friendly venues and especially kind to left-handed power hitters such as Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Combined with sluggers like Junior Caminero, Munetaka Murakami and Jac Caglianone, that creates a real chance for towering, record-chasing distance even if the home run count drops. Whether that is “less exciting” depends on taste. Critics of the no-clock setup warn the slower pace could drag and reduce the frantic energy that defined recent Derbies. Supporters argue the simpler rules and higher stakes on each swing will make the event easier to follow and let fans appreciate each shot. The safest expectation is a cleaner, more strategic Derby with fewer homers overall, but a stronger chance of unforgettable moonshots.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 13

Four CBS Sports MLB writers split their 2026 Home Run Derby picks, backing Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero, Kyle Schwarber and Jac Caglianone ahead of Monday’s event at Citizens Bank Park.
Schwarber enters as the Caesars favorite at +310, just ahead of Caminero at +325, with Murakami at +500 and hometown star Harper at +525 in a field stacked with power hitters.
Harper’s case rests on home-field drama and his 2018 Derby title, while Caminero returns after finishing runner-up last year and Schwarber brings MLB home-run-leader form.
The eight-man field is part of All-Star Week in Philadelphia, with two Phillies headliners—Harper and Schwarber—giving the event a strong hometown focus.

Sources

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Will Netflix's broadcast, featuring legends Bonds and Pujols, revolutionize how fans watch the Home Run Derby?

Can Philadelphia's hometown heroes overcome the immense pressure to win the Derby on their home turf?

With no clock, will the new swing-based format lead to record-breaking power or a less exciting contest?

CBS Sports Experts Split on 2026 Home Run Derby Winner as Schwarber Leads at +310

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