$49 billion in central bank reserves now sits at roughly double Argentina’s 2023 level after the country shifted from a $270 million energy deficit in 2023 to a $7.8 billion surplus in 2025.
Vaca Muerta-led oil output rose 13% last year, helping turn Argentina into a net energy exporter; officials say the surplus could double by the end of 2026.
4.4% GDP growth in 2025 and inflation down to 31% from 211% in 2023 have strengthened financial buffers, while country risk has fallen to 400 basis points from 1,900.
3% growth to 3.6% is forecast this year, but the recovery remains uneven as consumer spending fell 3% in January-May, investment dropped 11.6% last year and real wages remain below Milei’s start.
24.3% export growth in January-May underscores Milei’s shift toward an open, export-led model, though falling foreign direct investment and political strains still cloud whether gains will reach households before next year’s election.
Can Argentina's export boom succeed while the domestic economy for its own citizens collapses?
With investors already betting against a post-2027 Argentina, is Milei's recovery built to last?
Is Milei's economic shock therapy creating an unforeseen public health catastrophe in Argentina?
Argentina’s $25 Billion Energy Boom: 2026 Economic Resurgence, Reforms, and the Risks Ahead
Overview
By mid-2026, Argentina’s economy showed strong signs of recovery, avoiding recession thanks to robust export growth and a series of structural reforms led by President Javier Milei’s administration. Gaining momentum after the 2025 mid-term elections, the government pushed forward with changes supported by the IMF, US Treasury, and major international banks. These efforts led to a notable decrease in Argentina’s risk premium and a replenishment of foreign exchange reserves, though reserves remain low relative to debt obligations. The combination of political support, international backing, and export-driven growth has been central to Argentina’s economic resurgence.