George Noble Renews SpaceX Bear Call After 28% Share Drop

Q: With insiders set to sell billions in stock, will SpaceX's share price collapse?

Probably not a sudden collapse, but the stock faces a credible risk of sustained downside as insider shares begin to unlock. The key issue is supply. SpaceX came public with an unusually small float, which helped drive the early surge above $200. Now that dynamic is reversing. After the company’s first earnings report, roughly 20% of locked shares become eligible for sale, with additional tranches through the fall and a much larger release in December. Even the first tranche is larger than the shares initially sold in the IPO, so the market will need much stronger demand to absorb it. That said, the lockup was deliberately staggered to avoid a single shock. Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion shares remain locked until 2027, removing the biggest immediate overhang. Index inclusion and passive-fund buying also provide some support, though not enough to eliminate pressure if early investors rush to take profits. The bigger risk is that the unlocks are arriving while valuation and fundamentals are under scrutiny. SpaceX is trading at a very rich multiple, has reported large losses tied to xAI, and has raised concerns over dilution after the Cursor deal and planned bond issuance. Analysts are sharply divided, with some targets near $210 and others closer to $63-$100. So the more likely outcome is not an instant crash from insider selling alone, but a volatile, potentially prolonged repricing lower unless earnings quickly justify the valuation and new demand offsets the rising share supply.

3 articles · Updated · Seeking Alpha · Jul 12

SpaceX shares have slid about 28% from their post-IPO closing high above $200, a pullback that prompted veteran investor George Noble to revive his bearish view on the stock.
Noble argued the decline may not be over, warning that a wave of insider selling could hit shares in the coming months and add fresh pressure.
The renewed call shifts attention from the stock's earlier post-IPO surge to whether selling by existing holders becomes the next catalyst for further weakness.