GF Securities Lifts TSMC Target to NT$2,900 as It Sees Q2 Revenue Up 11%
Updated
Updated · Barchart · Jul 12
GF Securities Lifts TSMC Target to NT$2,900 as It Sees Q2 Revenue Up 11%
3 articles · Updated · Barchart · Jul 12
Summary
Jeff Pu of GF Securities expects TSMC to post 11% sequential Q2 revenue growth and about 68% gross margin on July 16, above the company’s 65.5%-67.5% margin guidance.
The analyst also expects TSMC to raise full-year 2026 revenue guidance and signal heavier 2027 spending, with capex seen at $56 billion this year and accelerating to $73 billion next year.
Consensus estimates are more conservative, calling for Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.83 on $39.3 billion of revenue, while GF also models Q3 revenue growth of 13% versus a 9% consensus view.
TSMC enters earnings after a strong Q1, when revenue rose 41% year over year to $35.9 billion and gross margin reached 66.2%, helped by advanced nodes that made up 74% of wafer revenue.
Shares have surged about 89% over 52 weeks and 43% in 2026, leaving Wall Street broadly bullish but with a mean target of $463.92 implying only about 7% upside from current levels.
With key customers like Apple exploring rivals, is TSMC's dominance more fragile than its 90% market share suggests?
As TSMC expands globally, can its policy of keeping its best technology in Taiwan survive pressure from its powerful allies?
TSMC 2026: Market Dominance, $2 Trillion Valuation, and Geopolitical Risks in the AI Chip Era
Overview
As of July 2026, TSMC’s outlook is robust, supported by strong market demand and positive analyst sentiment. The company’s upcoming Q2 analyst meeting is expected to deliver an even more optimistic financial outlook, with GF Securities projecting an increase in full-year guidance. This anticipated upgrade reflects TSMC’s strong recent performance and promising future growth prospects. Additionally, higher capital expenditures for 2027 are expected, signaling confidence in continued expansion. Together, these factors highlight TSMC’s solid position in the semiconductor industry and its readiness to capitalize on ongoing demand for advanced chips.