Michael Nears $1 Billion Worldwide as Japan Pushes Biopic to $991.7 Million

Q: With terrible reviews but huge profits, can this biopic actually win the Oscar for Best Picture?

It can contend for a Best Picture nomination, but an actual win looks very unlikely. The strongest case for “Michael” is precedent. “Bohemian Rhapsody,” produced by the same Graham King, overcame weak reviews to land a Best Picture nomination and win four Oscars. The Academy has also shown it will embrace popular biopics and crowd-pleasers even when critics are cool on them. “Michael” has an even bigger commercial story: nearly $1 billion worldwide, record-setting for both music biopics and biopics overall, plus exceptional audience scores and strong word of mouth. That said, Best Picture winners almost never come from this level of critical rejection. “Michael” is sitting in roughly the 30%–40% range with critics, far below the usual Best Picture winner profile. The main criticism is not just that it is conventional, but that it sanitizes Jackson’s life by omitting the abuse allegations, a choice likely to make many Academy voters wary in the top category. Its more realistic Oscar path is below the line and in acting. Jaafar Jackson could enter the Best Actor conversation if the campaign is strong, and Colman Domingo appears to be a credible supporting contender. Craft categories such as makeup, costume design, production design and sound are also plausible. So the film’s box office power absolutely keeps it in the awards conversation, and a nomination is possible. But unless the season turns dramatically in its favor, Best Picture itself remains a long shot.

3 articles · Updated · Forbes · Jul 10

$991.7 million in global ticket sales has put Michael within reach of the $1 billion mark in its 12th week, with Lionsgate expecting it could cross the threshold as soon as this weekend.
Japan is driving the late run: the film has made $30.5 million there since its June 12 debut, while domestic sales have slowed to $492,000 over July 3-5 from 270 North American theaters.
Michael opened far above forecasts with $97.2 million domestically and more than $217 million worldwide in its first three days, overcoming weak reviews to build unusually strong legs.
The biopic has already broken two records, topping Bohemian Rhapsody's $911 million to become the biggest music biopic and then passing Oppenheimer's $976.7 million as the highest-grossing biopic overall.
If it reaches $1 billion, Michael would become only the second 2026 release to do so after The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and a fall rerelease remains possible if awards-season momentum builds.