Super El Niño Could Lift Global Food Prices 15.8% Through 2028 as Iran War Adds Strain
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jul 12
Super El Niño Could Lift Global Food Prices 15.8% Through 2028 as Iran War Adds Strain
2 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 12
Summary
Goldman Sachs estimates a 2026-27 “super” El Niño could drive global food commodity prices up 15.8%, with the shock not fully filtering through to consumers until the second half of 2028.
NOAA last month confirmed Pacific warming was taking hold and put the chance of sea-surface temperatures rising more than 2C above normal later this year at 63%, raising risks of droughts, floods and stormier weather.
India is already seeing a drier monsoon—some regions have received just 25% of normal rainfall—threatening wheat, rice and sugar cane, while palm oil, coffee and cocoa supplies could also be hit.
Analysts say the weather threat is colliding with Iran war disruption, which has already lifted world food prices to a three-year high and tightened fertiliser, energy and shipping conditions.
UniCredit warned an extreme scenario could cut global agricultural output by 14.3%, or $342 billion, reviving inflation pressure on households and central banks with lower-income countries most exposed.
With a super El Niño and war raging, why are analysts predicting a surprising drop in future wheat prices?
This El Niño could break a 150-year-old record. Are we prepared for weather our world has never seen?
A new pipeline is bypassing the world's riskiest chokepoint. Is the era of oil blackmail ending?
2026 Global Food Crisis: Super El Niño and Iran War Combine to Expose Systemic Weaknesses and Price Shocks
Overview
In 2026, the world faces a 'dual threat' to food security as a powerful Super El Niño develops alongside ongoing geopolitical conflict, especially the war in Iran. El Niño events, which typically occur every few years, are now unfolding amid existing global vulnerabilities and instability. This combination amplifies the risk of widespread disruption, as extreme weather from El Niño damages crops and marine life, while conflict disrupts supply chains and raises food prices. Together, these crises intensify each other's impacts, making food less available and affordable, and highlighting the urgent need for coordinated global action and resilience-building.