Nate Diaz Backs McGregor Round-2 Finish or Holloway Over 5 Rounds at UFC 329

Q: After five years away, can McGregor's power defy the odds against a relentlessly active Max Holloway?

Probably not. McGregor’s power gives him a real early path, but the evidence before UFC 329 pointed much more strongly toward Holloway if the fight lasted beyond the opening rounds. That was also Nate Diaz’s read: “Conor by finish in round 2 or Max if it goes 5.” It matches the broader expert view. McGregor, 37, returned after five years out, his first fight since the 2021 leg break and after an anti-doping suspension. He entered as a clear betting underdog, around +255, while Holloway was about -305 after late money came in on him. The case for McGregor was simple and narrow. His left hand, timing and reach have always made him dangerous early, and several analysts believed he could still produce a one-shot finish, especially at welterweight without a hard weight cut. If he could keep Holloway at the end of his range and land clean in the first two rounds, he had a chance to flip the fight. The case against him was broader. Holloway had fought nine times during McGregor’s layoff, stayed active against elite opponents, and remained one of the UFC’s highest-volume strikers with proven five-round cardio. Experts overwhelmingly favored Holloway because his pace, durability and pressure were expected to test McGregor’s conditioning and ring rust. In the end, McGregor’s power did not defy the odds. His comeback ended almost immediately when he suffered a right knee injury in the first round, and Holloway won by TKO.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jul 12

Nate Diaz said hours before UFC 329 that Conor McGregor wins by a round-2 finish, but Max Holloway takes it if the rematch lasts all five rounds.
Holloway entered the Las Vegas main event as a -305 favorite, with McGregor at +255, after late betting pushed the line back out from roughly -205.
Diaz’s split prediction tracks the matchup logic: McGregor carries early knockout power, while Holloway’s recent activity, youth and cardio favor him deep into the fight.
The bout headlines UFC 329 at T-Mobile Arena, with Diaz — who beat McGregor at UFC 196 in 2016 — weighing in as odds shifted toward Holloway.