2026 World Cup Cuts Field to 4 Teams as France and Argentina Reach Semifinals

Q: With the top four seeds reaching the semifinals, has the expanded 48-team format truly increased the chances for underdog nations?

Yes — but mainly in the early and middle rounds, not yet at the very top of the bracket. The fact that the top four FIFA-ranked teams are in the semifinals suggests the expanded 48-team format has not fundamentally changed who is most likely to win the World Cup. The elite still had the depth, experience and squad quality to survive the longer tournament and reach the final four. But the wider field did increase opportunities for underdogs to qualify, reach the knockouts and produce meaningful upsets. The additional places brought in debutants and smaller nations such as Cape Verde and Curaçao, while the round-of-32 structure and best-third-place pathways gave more teams a realistic route beyond the group stage. That translated into results: Norway eliminated Brazil and reached a first quarterfinal, Paraguay knocked out Germany, Morocco beat the Netherlands and made another deep run, and Cape Verde advanced and pushed stronger teams hard. So the evidence points to a mixed answer. Expansion has clearly widened access and made the tournament more volatile below the semifinal level. It has created more chances for smaller nations to gain points, reach knockout rounds and occasionally remove a heavyweight. What it has not yet shown is that those extra chances are enough to dislodge the established powers from the final stages. In 2026, the format appears to have increased underdog opportunity more than underdog title probability.

3 articles · Updated · USA TODAY · Jul 11

Four teams remained in the 2026 World Cup after the quarterfinals, down from the tournament’s record 48-team field.
France secured its semifinal place with a 2-0 win over Morocco in Boston, while Argentina beat Switzerland 3-1 after extra time to join the final four.
England also advanced by ending Norway’s run with a 2-1 victory; Norway had been the lowest-ranked quarterfinalist at No. 19 in FIFA’s rankings.
The surviving field still includes the world’s top four teams by FIFA ranking, including the last two champions—France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022.