About one-third of globally traded urea and nearly half of sulfur supply became questionable after a missile attack on natural gas transport in the Strait of Hormuz, Keytrade AG CEO Melih Keyman said.
That disruption is hitting fertilizer markets as Brazil nears safrinha phosphate application and the Northern Hemisphere approaches fall demand, with Keyman saying physical phosphate supply may be insufficient to meet needs.
Prices near $900 for MAP or DAP could curb buying by pushing growers to cut application rates, helping ration limited supply.
Sulfur still costs at least three times its average level, Keyman said, keeping phosphate production expensive and making lower prices for farmers unlikely even if demand softens.
Keyman said the market is unlikely to return to its old pattern, arguing the Middle East conflict is creating a lasting 'new normal' for global fertilizer trade.
Is the Hormuz conflict distracting from an even larger global fertilizer supply problem driven by China's export policies?
As fertilizer prices dip but supplies remain stuck, is the global food crisis just beginning?
How can the world secure its food supply when fertilizer routes have become geopolitical weapons?
2026 Fertilizer Crisis: Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers 60% Urea Price Surge and Global Food Risks
Overview
In February 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime chokepoint—triggered an immediate shock to global markets. This led to severe supply chain disruptions, especially in the fertilizer sector, where urea and sulfur prices surged rapidly. The inaccessibility of the Strait caused prolonged shipping delays from the Middle East and prompted new trade restrictions, pushing urea prices nearly 60 percent higher than in 2022. These cascading effects exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains and highlighted how a single chokepoint can create widespread upheaval in essential commodity markets.