South Africa’s crude steel output fell to 4.5 million tonnes in 2025 as cheap imports, global overcapacity and weak domestic demand squeezed local mills, prompting Elco Steel to lean on six-month forecasting and localisation.
Elco says that planning discipline, backed by mill investment to cut production costs, has helped it sustain growth even during an industry price war that local producers struggle to win against Eastern suppliers.
Imports rose 11.8% in January 2026, with long-product imports up 151%, reinforcing Elco’s call for higher tariffs to push local sourcing and protect jobs.
Flat demand in construction and manufacturing remains a drag, while automotive and energy demand is improving on renewable investment and interest in greener steel.
SAISI says the import threat is now structural rather than cyclical, warning that without coordinated policy support and stronger local project pipelines, the sector’s decline will continue.