Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 11

McGregor Returns After 5 Years to Face Holloway at UFC 329 as Holloway Opens -225 Favorite

Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 11

McGregor Returns After 5 Years to Face Holloway at UFC 329 as Holloway Opens -225 Favorite

Q: Can Conor McGregor defy a five-year layoff and severe injury to upset the heavily favored and active Max Holloway?

It is possible, but the evidence points strongly against it. McGregor still has the one thing that can change any fight: early knockout power. He beat Holloway in 2013, and even now oddsmakers have not priced him as a hopeless underdog, with Holloway around -225 and McGregor about +185. A few fighters and analysts have backed McGregor, largely on the belief that his left hand, timing and big-fight instincts could produce a fast finish. But the larger body of evidence favors Holloway. McGregor is returning after a five-year layoff, a broken leg suffered in 2021, and another aborted comeback in 2024 because of a toe injury. He is 37, has lost his last two fights, and is 1-3 since 2018. Long layoffs and major leg injuries are especially concerning against a pressure fighter who forces pace and tests cardio. Holloway, 34, has stayed active at elite level, going 5-3 in eight fights since McGregor last competed. He remains one of the UFC’s highest-volume strikers and has far more recent cage time. Most expert picks cited his activity, durability, footwork and conditioning, with several forecasting a Holloway stoppage in the middle rounds as McGregor fades. The clearest path for McGregor is an early finish before Holloway’s volume and rhythm take over. If the fight reaches the third round and beyond, the matchup appears to tilt heavily toward Holloway. So yes, McGregor can pull the upset, but based on form, activity and expert consensus, it would be a significant surprise.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 11

Saturday’s UFC 329 main event in Paradise, Nevada marks Conor McGregor’s first fight in five years, a rematch with Max Holloway nearly 13 years after McGregor won their 2013 meeting by decision.
DraftKings lists Holloway as a -225 money-line favorite and McGregor at +185, reflecting doubts over McGregor’s layoff since his 2021 broken-leg loss to Dustin Poirier despite his knockout power.
Holloway enters with steadier recent activity and the UFC records for most strikes and significant strikes, though he has also lost two of his last three fights.
The card also features Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett and Cody Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista, with prelims including Robert Whittaker and Cody Garbrandt.
Paramount+ is streaming the full event, while sportsbooks are using the high-profile return to push sign-up offers ranging from $150 to $1,500 in bonus bets.