Bitcoin’s Halving History Challenges $300,000-$500,000 2029 Peak Forecasts
Updated
Updated · CoinDesk · Jul 10
Bitcoin’s Halving History Challenges $300,000-$500,000 2029 Peak Forecasts
1 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · Jul 10
Summary
$300,000-$500,000 bitcoin targets for the 2029 cycle peak look stretched as each halving-era bull market has produced sharply smaller gains than the last.
Peak-to-peak returns have compressed from 75x in 2017 to 3.5x in 2021 and 1.8x at the 2025 high of $126,000, implying the next cycle could deliver a much more modest advance.
Bitcoin’s larger market value, deeper liquidity and wider use of ETFs, futures and options mean far more capital is needed to drive outsized rallies, making the asset less volatile and more Wall Street-like.
Analysts still expect the next bull phase to build ahead of the April 2028 halving and crest in 2029, but the report argues investors should recalibrate away from past moonshot assumptions.