Updated
Updated · Oklahoma Farm Report · Jul 10
USDA Cuts U.S. Winter Wheat Forecast 4% to 990 Million Bushels as Yield Hits 2015 Low
Updated
Updated · Oklahoma Farm Report · Jul 10

USDA Cuts U.S. Winter Wheat Forecast 4% to 990 Million Bushels as Yield Hits 2015 Low

3 articles · Updated · Oklahoma Farm Report · Jul 10

Summary

  • 990 million bushels is USDA NASS’s new U.S. winter wheat forecast for July, down 4% from June and 29% from 2025.
  • 46.7 bushels per acre is the projected national yield, down 0.1 from last month and 8.2 from a year earlier, which would make it the lowest since 2015.
  • Drought, abandoned fields and fewer harvested acres drove the downgrade, especially in the southern Plains where some wheat was grazed out instead of taken to grain.
  • Kansas, the top wheat-producing state, was pegged at 196.4 million bushels, down 44% from 2025; Oklahoma fell to 58.8 million and Texas to 44.8 million, both roughly halved from a year ago.

Insights

With U.S. wheat exports plummeting, which nations will fill the supply gap in a volatile global market?
As drought drives wheat production to a historic low, is federal aid a cure or just a temporary fix?
Beyond disaster relief, what farming innovations can secure the future of America’s drought-stricken breadbasket?