Ukraine Unveils Victory Plan, Hitting Russian Refineries 194 Times to Cut Crimea Supply Lines
Updated
Updated · Foreign Policy · Jul 9
Ukraine Unveils Victory Plan, Hitting Russian Refineries 194 Times to Cut Crimea Supply Lines
3 articles · Updated · Foreign Policy · Jul 9
Summary
Kyiv has coalesced around a strategy of “strategic neutralization,” using long-range drones and missiles to cripple Russian energy, logistics and defense production rather than pursuing costly ground offensives.
194 strikes on Russian oil refineries this year—11 times the 2025 pace—have helped trigger fuel shortages in more than half of Russia’s regions, pushing Moscow to import gasoline from India and halt some fuel exports.
Crimea is a central target: Ukrainian officers say severing the peninsula’s supply routes could be possible by the end of summer, which would also make Russian positions in occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson harder to sustain.
New systems are underpinning the campaign, including the AI-enabled Hornet attack drone and the 1,800-mile-range Flamingo cruise missile, while Kyiv is also nearing deployment of its own ballistic missiles.
The approach still depends on time and Western backing, as Russia retains larger manpower and ballistic-missile capacity even while Europe reaffirmed support for Ukraine at this week’s NATO summit.
With Crimea as the target, is Ukraine's drone strategy aimed at defeating Russia's army or its political will?
As Ukraine wages a high-tech 'hyperwar,' can Russia's industrial might adapt fast enough to counter the drone onslaught?
Ukraine’s Escalating Energy War: The 2026 Campaign That Crippled Russia’s Fuel Supply and Military Logistics
Overview
In the first half of 2026, Ukraine launched a bold 40-day campaign targeting Russia’s vital energy infrastructure, using advanced weapons like Flamingo cruise missiles and long-range drones. This marked a major escalation, aiming to weaken Russia’s war effort by disrupting its fuel supply. As a result, almost every Russian region faced fuel rationing or gasoline shortages, forcing Russia to import gasoline by sea from India. The sustained Ukrainian attacks on key oil refineries created critical fuel shortages across Russia, highlighting Ukraine’s growing ability to strike deep and inflict significant economic and logistical damage.