Kalshi Traders Price 54% Odds of 2026 Fed Rate Hike as Officials Split
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 9
Kalshi Traders Price 54% Odds of 2026 Fed Rate Hike as Officials Split
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 9
Summary
Kalshi traders now assign a 54% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates before year-end 2026, down slightly from 56% over the past day.
June Fed minutes drove the focus: many policymakers saw rates ending 2026 within or slightly below the current 3.5%-3.75% range, while many others saw them above that range.
Inflation remains a key pressure point, with the Fed's preferred PCE gauge running at 4.1% in May, the highest since April 2023, as Middle East tensions add to uncertainty.
Related Kalshi pricing shows a 76% chance of no rate cuts this year, a 62% chance of a hike before July 2027 and nearly 80% odds of one by 2028.