White Sox Eye UCLA's Roch Cholowsky at No. 1 as 2026 MLB Draft Opens July 11

Q: As five MLB giants lose their first-round picks, is the league's competitive balance tax finally starting to bite?

Yes — in a narrow, real sense the tax is biting, but not enough to prove it is fixing competitive balance. For the 2026 draft, the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Yankees all had their top pick pushed back 10 spots after exceeding the top competitive balance tax surcharge threshold in 2025. That dropped all five out of the first round proper: the Mets to No. 27, Yankees to No. 35, Phillies to No. 36, Blue Jays to No. 39 and Dodgers to No. 40. That is a meaningful penalty because it also shrinks draft bonus pool value, reducing flexibility to sign premium amateur talent. So the mechanism is no longer theoretical. High-payroll clubs are paying cash penalties and now giving up prime draft position as well. In that sense, the CBT is clearly imposing a cost on aggressive spending. But the broader evidence suggests it still is not deterring the sport’s richest teams in the way MLB originally hoped. Those clubs kept spending well past the thresholds anyway, and commissioner Rob Manfred has already said the luxury-tax system has been ineffective as a competitive-balance tool. Record tax bills, especially for teams like the Dodgers and Mets, show that wealthy clubs still view the penalties as manageable. The better reading is that the CBT is biting at the margins, especially in the draft, but it is not yet changing behavior enough to level the field. It is a sharper speed bump, not a true brake.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 10

Saturday's two-day MLB Draft is projected to start with Chicago taking UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky at No. 1, though the latest mock says the decision remains close rather than settled.
Cholowsky is given a 40% edge over Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson at 39%, with Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey at 20% as teams weigh a minimal talent gap and possible bonus demands.
Tampa Bay is mocked to take Emerson at No. 2 and Minnesota Lackey at No. 3, leaving San Francisco at No. 4 linked to Jacob Lombard despite strong interest in moving up for a top-three talent.
Chicago landed the top pick despite a 60-102 season by winning the draft lottery, while San Francisco jumped from No. 15 to No. 4 and Colorado slid to No. 10 under lottery restrictions.
Five tax-paying clubs — the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Yankees — had their top 2026 picks pushed back 10 spots, knocking each out of the first round.