Goldman Sachs Bans Staff From Prediction Markets on 5 Sensitive Topics Amid Insider-Trading Risk
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 9
Goldman Sachs Bans Staff From Prediction Markets on 5 Sensitive Topics Amid Insider-Trading Risk
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 9
Summary
Goldman Sachs barred employees from trading prediction-market contracts tied to the bank, elections, financial markets, macro data and geopolitics, people familiar with the policy said.
The move follows rising concern that event contracts create new channels for misuse of material nonpublic information, highlighted by a May CFTC and DOJ case accusing a Google employee of making about $1.2 million on Polymarket.
Only 3 of 50 companies contacted by CNBC said they already have prediction-market policies, while 2 said they are reviewing them; banks were the sector most likely to have rules in place or under development.
Kalshi and Polymarket have added surveillance and compliance tools, but lawyers said exchanges' controls are only a first step and employers will face growing pressure to set explicit rules and train staff.
With regulators cracking down, will most firms soon explicitly ban or tightly restrict employee trading on prediction markets, or is broader adoption inevitable?
As prediction markets surge, how can companies realistically monitor and prevent insider trading when employees can bet on nearly any future corporate event?