Kalshi Traders See 75% Odds U.S. Gas Tops $3.50 by Nov. 3 as Iran Tensions Rise
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 9
Kalshi Traders See 75% Odds U.S. Gas Tops $3.50 by Nov. 3 as Iran Tensions Rise
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 9
Summary
Kalshi traders now assign a 75% chance that U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $3.50 a gallon on Election Day, with 39% odds they top $3.75.
Those probabilities jumped from 37% and 22% before the latest U.S.-Iran strikes, reflecting fears that disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could keep fuel costs elevated longer.
AAA put the national average at $3.84 on Thursday, up 5 cents from a day earlier, after U.S. crude climbed to as high as $75 a barrel on Wednesday from about $68 on Monday.
Even so, traders are not betting on a major new spike: Kalshi gives only a 43% chance gas prices exceed $4.60 this year, versus a 2026 high of $4.56 on May 21.