Vingegaard Cedes Tour Yellow After 3 Stages as 54,450 Meters of Climbing Loom

Q: Is Pogačar's early aggression a sign of supreme confidence or a huge gamble before the Tour's brutal final stages?

Pogačar’s early aggression looks more like calculated confidence than panic, but it still carries real risk if it costs too much before the Alps. The evidence from the opening days points to intent, not impulse. He controlled stage 2 strongly enough to gift Isaac del Toro the win, then took stage 3 himself, and he was comfortable enough to surrender yellow again on stage 4. That suggests UAE is not simply chasing every jersey at all costs. Pogačar also has a long record of winning with this style: he races aggressively, trusts his repeatability under fatigue, and has the physiology and palmarès to justify it. But the counterargument is serious. This Tour has 54,450 metres of climbing, with the race widely expected to be decided on stages 19 and 20, which alone pack 9,000 metres of elevation gain. Visma–Lease a Bike appears to be riding with that endgame in mind. Vingegaard has looked notably calm, saying explosive finishes are not his specialty and that giving away the jersey can be tactically useful. His team has also kept key helpers in reserve rather than matching UAE’s early expenditure. So the best reading is that Pogačar is playing to his strengths and showing supreme confidence, not weakness. Yet it becomes a gamble if those early efforts force UAE to pay later, especially against a rival whose entire strategy is built around conserving energy for the Tour’s hardest mountain stages. Right now, Pogačar has won the opening exchanges; the decisive test has not arrived.

Q: Could Isaac del Toro's shocking form upend team strategy and make him a true contender for the yellow jersey?

Yes — but only as a secondary UAE option unless race circumstances force a change. Del Toro’s form is strong enough to matter. The 22-year-old has already won the UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes this season, took a Giro podium in 2025, and now has a Tour stage win after stage 2. He is also a proven climber, which is crucial in a Tour with 54,450 meters of climbing and a likely GC showdown on the brutal late mountain stages. That gives UAE Team Emirates a real tactical weapon. If Del Toro stays close on time into the high mountains, rivals such as Visma–Lease a Bike may be forced to respond to two threats rather than just Pogačar. In that sense, his form can absolutely complicate team strategy across the race and give UAE a co-leader-style advantage, even if unofficially. But the evidence still points to Pogačar as the clear leader. Del Toro started the Tour as a key climbing domestique, and Pogačar remains the overwhelming favorite and the rider around whom UAE is built. The fact that Pogačar “gifted” him stage 2 underlined Del Toro’s value, but it did not erase the hierarchy. So Del Toro is a genuine yellow-jersey outsider, not yet the team’s primary bet. If Pogačar has a bad day, crashes, or if Del Toro reaches the final mountain block still within striking distance, UAE could pivot quickly. Until then, his biggest impact is likely to be as the strongest backup plan in the race.

3 articles · Updated · We Love Cycling · Jul 8

Stage 4 left Jonas Vingegaard without the yellow jersey after Tadej Pogačar took control through the opening sprint-heavy days, but the Dane showed little sign of alarm after finishing fourth on stage 2 and easing through stage 3.
Vingegaard said the explosive finales do not suit him and suggested surrendering yellow could be tactically useful, reinforcing the view that Visma is conserving energy rather than chasing every early-stage result.
Visma kept key riders such as Matteo Jorgenson and Davide Piganzoli deeper in the peloton while UAE committed heavily to stages 2 and 3, where Pogačar even handed teammate Isaac del Toro his first Tour stage win.
The bigger test comes in the mountains: this Tour packs 54,450 meters of climbing, with 9,000 meters on stages 19 and 20 alone, making the general classification battle far from settled.