Study Sees AMOC Weakening 10%-20% by 2100, Not Sudden Collapse Despite 1C North Atlantic Cooling
Updated
Updated · upday UK · Jul 7
Study Sees AMOC Weakening 10%-20% by 2100, Not Sudden Collapse Despite 1C North Atlantic Cooling
3 articles · Updated · upday UK · Jul 7
Summary
A new Science Advances study says the AMOC is likely to weaken by 10% to 20% by 2100 rather than abruptly collapse, easing fears tied to the North Atlantic “cold blob.”
Nearly 1C of cooling south of Greenland since 1900 is linked to CO2-driven ice melt that adds cold freshwater, blocking dense salty water from sinking and slowing the circulation.
The study estimates atmospheric warming could weaken the AMOC by about 60%, with Greenland meltwater adding another 20% reduction in the North Atlantic, though not enough for an immediate shutdown.
Europe could still face more heatwaves, cold snaps, harsher winters and altered rainfall as the cold patch distorts the jet stream; marine ecosystems and fisheries may also become less reliable.
Scientists remain split because direct observations cover only 25-30 years, but major climate models broadly agree the AMOC will weaken this century, making emissions cuts the main preventive tool.
Scientists are split on an Atlantic circulation collapse. Are we facing a gradual slowdown or a near-term climate cliff-edge?
A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic is fueling Europe's heatwaves. How does this ocean paradox threaten global weather stability?
AMOC on the Brink: Projections, Uncertainties, and the Global Stakes of a Weakening Atlantic Circulation
Overview
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucial for regulating global climate, and scientists are closely monitoring its stability due to concerns about a possible tipping point. Although the world has likely not yet crossed this threshold, predicting exactly when it might happen remains difficult. Recent research warns that the AMOC could reach its tipping point as early as the 2040s, especially as global warming accelerates. With global temperatures expected to surpass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target by 2026, the urgency for research, monitoring, and strong climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has never been greater.