Josh Nagel Releases UFC 329 Picks as Holloway Opens at -210 Against McGregor

Q: Can McGregor's legendary power overcome five years of ring rust against the relentless pace of Max Holloway?

McGregor can absolutely change the fight with one shot, but the evidence points to Holloway’s pace, activity and recent form being the more reliable edge over 25 minutes. McGregor’s case is straightforward: he remains one of MMA’s most dangerous punchers, owns 19 knockout wins, and has already beaten Holloway once, even while fighting through an ACL injury in 2013. At welterweight, he may carry his power well without a harsh cut. If he wins, it most likely comes early, before the fight settles into a high-output rhythm. The problem is the five-year layoff. McGregor has not fought since July 2021 and has not won since January 2020. At 37, returning from a broken leg and back-to-back TKO losses, he faces a difficult style matchup against a fighter who has stayed active and durable. Historical rematch data also suggests long gaps reduce the likelihood of the original winner repeating. Holloway, 34, has fought eight times since McGregor’s last appearance and remains one of the sport’s best volume strikers. He holds UFC records for total fight time and striking output, and his cardio and ability to build pressure are central to why he is a -210 favorite. Analysts, including Josh Nagel and Forbes’ preview, lean toward an early-to-mid fight finish rather than a long tactical bout. So McGregor’s power gives him a real path, especially in the opening rounds. But if Holloway survives the early danger, his relentless pace and sharper recent timing make him the likelier winner.

1 articles · Updated · SportsLine · Jul 8

SportsLine analyst Josh Nagel published his UFC 329 betting card ahead of Saturday’s Las Vegas main event, backing the fight to finish under the total rounds and adding a money-line play plus a plus-money method-of-victory prop.
Holloway enters the July 11 rematch as a -210 favorite, with McGregor at +175 as he returns from a five-year layoff for the 9 p.m. ET main card at T-Mobile Arena.
Nagel’s picks are being marketed off a strong 2026 run that included Sean Strickland at +220 over Anthony Hernandez and Charles Oliveira at +150 over Holloway in March.
The release centers on one of the year’s highest-profile UFC cards, with McGregor’s comeback and Holloway’s favored status driving betting interest ahead of the Paramount+ stream.