CBA Cuts Australia 2026 GDP Forecast to 1.5% as Housing Slump Overtakes Iran Shock
Updated
Updated · Mortgage Professional · Jul 6
CBA Cuts Australia 2026 GDP Forecast to 1.5% as Housing Slump Overtakes Iran Shock
1 articles · Updated · Mortgage Professional · Jul 6
Summary
CBA lowered its end-2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, saying a weakening housing market has become a bigger drag on Australia than the earlier Iran conflict.
Sydney home values fell 1.2% in June and 3.2% over the quarter, while Melbourne dropped 1% and 2.6%; auction clearance rates have stayed below 50% for five straight weeks.
Canberra’s June tax overhaul cut capital-gains and negative-gearing incentives for investors, and a new ban on SMSF borrowing for residential property has further chilled buyer sentiment and dwelling investment.
Oil averaging $97 a barrel instead of CBA’s earlier $120 scenario helped cap its inflation peak forecast at 4.1% rather than 5.4%, but the bank still expects the RBA to hold rates through 2026.
By 2027, CBA sees unemployment peaking at 4.8% before growth recovers to 2% on stronger business investment, including a data-centre buildout estimated at $150 billion to $220 billion.