IMF Lifts UK 2026 Growth Forecast to 1% as Iran War Fears Ease
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jul 8
IMF Lifts UK 2026 Growth Forecast to 1% as Iran War Fears Ease
2 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 8
Summary
The IMF raised its UK 2026 GDP forecast to 1.0% from 0.8%, the only upward revision among G7 economies in its July outlook.
Falling oil prices, emergency stockpile releases and an AI-led global tech boom helped limit the Iran war’s economic damage, leaving global growth forecasts broadly unchanged at 3.0% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027.
The fund kept its UK 2027 forecast at 1.3% and said inflation should return toward the government’s 2% target by mid-2027, easing fears of multiple Bank of England rate hikes.
Fresh risks remain: oil jumped again after Donald Trump said the ceasefire was "over," and the IMF warned renewed conflict or a sharp correction in AI-driven market expectations could hit trade, investment and commodity prices.