IMF Sees UK Inflation Hitting 2% by Mid-2027 as Oil Prices Ease
Updated
Updated · The Independent · Jul 8
IMF Sees UK Inflation Hitting 2% by Mid-2027 as Oil Prices Ease
3 articles · Updated · The Independent · Jul 8
Summary
Mid-2027 is now when UK inflation should return to the Bank of England’s 2% target, the IMF said, bringing forward its previous expectation of end-2027.
Oil prices have eased after an interim US-Iran peace deal, and the IMF said the global fallout from the Middle East conflict has so far been better than feared.
UK consumer inflation stood at 2.8% in May and is still expected to rise in coming months, with the Bank of England recently warning it could top 3.25% later this year.
Globally, the IMF sees inflation at 4.7% in 2026 before cooling to 3.9% in 2027, while warning renewed Middle East conflict could revive commodity volatility and supply-chain pressure.
The fund left its May UK growth view unchanged at 1% for 2026, after earlier upgrading that forecast from April and citing a more resilient economy.