Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jul 8

Scottie Scheffler Tops Genesis Scottish Open Picks at +490 as Analyst Eyes -18 Winning Score

Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jul 8

Scottie Scheffler Tops Genesis Scottish Open Picks at +490 as Analyst Eyes -18 Winning Score

Q: Scottie Scheffler is the top pick, but will a recently cooled putter threaten his chances?

Yes, but it is more a caution than a reason to fade him. Scheffler is still the strongest fit on paper for this Scottish Open. The Renaissance Club is expected to reward elite driving, precise approach play and enough putting to keep pace in a low-scoring week, and Scheffler remains the field’s best tee-to-green player. He also has a strong record here, including a tie for third in 2023 and a tie for eighth in 2025, with an average score of 68.36. The concern is real because this event may turn into a putting contest at times. Analysts note his putter has cooled in key moments, including a missed birdie chance in a playoff at the Travelers, and there is specific concern that he has not always putted these greens especially well. In a tournament where the winning score could reach 18-under or better, even a small dip on the greens can matter. Still, the broader evidence suggests the putter is not a major red flag. Scheffler ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season after significant improvement, and his overall game remains exceptionally steady. His ball-striking gives him more birdie looks than almost anyone, which can offset a merely average week on the greens. So the cooled putter could threaten his chances if this becomes a pure birdie race, but it does not outweigh his advantages. If he putts even adequately, he remains the player to beat.

Q: Will a new, tougher finishing stretch spoil the predicted 'birdie week' at The Renaissance Club?

No. The new finishing stretch should add late drama and more dropped shots, but it is not expected to derail the broader expectation of a low-scoring week at The Renaissance Club. The course has been rerouted back to its 2019 order, creating a sterner run-in. The closing sequence now has no par-5s, and the old easy-scoring 16th is gone from the finish. Players and officials have described the new back end as more demanding: the drivable 14th offers risk-reward, the short par-3 15th can punish mistakes, and the final holes include a long par-4, a difficult 203-yard par-3 at 17, and a tough 18th that often plays into the wind. Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland and Edoardo Molinari have all pointed to a more compelling, tougher finish. But the overall scoring forecast still points to a birdie-friendly tournament. Weather is expected to be benign by Scottish Open standards, with only moderate winds and no severe links conditions. Analysts still project the winning score in the -15 to -20 range, with around -18 a realistic target. That fits the course’s recent history. Even with design tweaks, The Renaissance Club has remained scoreable when the wind stays down, and this year’s player analysis still centers on aggressive driving and hot putting rather than survival golf. So the tougher closing stretch is likely to shape who wins and create volatility late on Sunday, but not to spoil the expected birdie week overall.

Q: Can a revamped course layout give past champions an unexpected edge against the favorites?

Yes, but probably only at the margins. The strongest case is for players with meaningful experience on the 2019 routing now being restored at The Renaissance Club. This year’s Scottish Open flips holes one through seven with 10 through 16, bringing back the sequence used when Bernd Wiesberger won in 2019. That matters because the closing stretch is different in feel and strategy: the drivable par-4 14th and the short par-3 15th are now the last clear birdie chances before a tougher finish. Players who have already managed that flow may adjust faster. That said, the layout is not a pure throwback. The course is now a par 70 rather than a par 71, the 16th has been converted from a par 5 to a 505-yard par 4, and bunker and semi-rough changes have altered decision-making. So past champions do not get a simple replay of old knowledge. The bigger edge still belongs to the favorites whose games fit the course’s current demands. Analysts expect a low-scoring week, with aggressive driving, strong approach play and hot putting deciding the tournament. That profile still points to Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg more than to nostalgia picks. If any past champions benefit, it is more likely Rory McIlroy, who combines elite current form at this venue with the best scoring average here, than Bernd Wiesberger, whose 2019 win came on a similar routing but whose recent driving inconsistency makes him a risky bet in a birdie-heavy event.

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Jul 8

Scottie Scheffler was the analyst’s top Scottish Open pick at +490 to win, with Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg also backed as leading contenders at +2000.
A projected winning score of at least 18-under drove those selections, with The Renaissance Club expected to reward aggressive driving and birdie conversion rather than punishing links weather.
Scheffler’s case rests on elite off-the-tee and approach play plus improved putting, while Fleetwood brings three top-10s here since 2020 and Aberg has back-to-back top-10 finishes at the event.
Rory McIlroy was rated the likelier winner in a head-to-head with Xander Schauffele, but the analyst passed at -165 because the price was too steep.
For DFS, Doug Ghim at $7,400 and Eugenio Chacarra at $7,600 were flagged as upside plays, while Bernd Wiesberger at $6,800 was a fade because inconsistent driving could hurt in a birdie-heavy week.