3 articles · Updated · Mortgage Professional · Jul 9
Summary
More than 5 basis points of intraday yield gains hit the 10-year Treasury on Wednesday after Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over,” while oil prices rose and revived inflation fears.
Odeta Kushi of First American said the flare-up reinforces a higher-for-longer rate outlook, with mortgage rates likely staying above 6% rather than falling sharply.
Warsh’s renewed focus on the Fed’s 2% inflation target, along with elevated federal deficits and heavier Treasury issuance, further narrows the path to lower borrowing costs.
About 4 million annualized existing-home sales show housing has stabilized somewhat, but Kushi said limited supply—not just mortgage rates—remains the bigger obstacle to affordability.
Renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz has already pushed Brent up 5.43% to $78.19 a barrel, underscoring how Middle East shocks can quickly unsettle rate expectations.