EURUSD Awaits FOMC Minutes as ECB’s 25-Basis-Point Hike and Oil Risks Pull Opposite Ways
Updated
Updated · XTB · Jul 8
EURUSD Awaits FOMC Minutes as ECB’s 25-Basis-Point Hike and Oil Risks Pull Opposite Ways
3 articles · Updated · XTB · Jul 8
Summary
Wednesday’s key trigger for EURUSD is the FOMC minutes, with traders looking less at further Fed hikes than at when US rate cuts could begin under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Any hint the Fed remains cautious on easing could lift the dollar, while a more dovish read would pressure it through lower Treasury yields and a narrower expected policy gap.
The euro still has support from the ECB’s June 25-basis-point hike and growing bets on another increase later this year as services inflation stays sticky.
Middle East tensions involving the US and Iran have pushed Brent and WTI higher, reviving inflation concerns that could keep both the Fed and ECB tighter for longer.
That mix leaves EURUSD unusually sensitive to shifts in yields, central-bank guidance and energy prices, with the next move hinging on whether the Fed cuts first or the ECB tightens again.