USMNT, Portugal Exit 2026 World Cup as Quarterfinal Field Shrinks to 8

Q: With Brazil and Portugal eliminated, which remaining powerhouse is now the favorite to win?

France is now the favorite among the remaining heavyweights. With Brazil and Portugal out, France has the shortest title odds of the teams left, listed at +175 by FanDuel Sportsbook as of July 6. That puts Didier Deschamps’ side ahead of Spain at +330, Argentina at +450, and England at +500. The case for France is straightforward: they remain one of the deepest squads in the field and still have Kylian Mbappé, who is tied on seven goals and continues to be the team’s decisive attacking threat. France also came through the Round of 16 without the kind of turbulence that affected some rivals. Argentina are still a major threat as defending champions, especially with Lionel Messi leading the Golden Boot race on eight goals, while Spain’s balance and England’s direct style keep them firmly in contention. But on current betting markets and overall squad strength, France has moved into the top spot. So if the question is which remaining powerhouse is now the favorite, the answer is France, with Spain and Argentina viewed as the closest challengers.

Q: Messi, Mbappé, and Haaland are in a historic scoring race. Who will win the Golden Boot?

Lionel Messi is the likeliest Golden Boot winner right now, but Kylian Mbappé is the most dangerous challenger because of the tiebreakers. After the Round of 16, Messi leads the race with 8 goals and 1 assist for Argentina. Mbappé has 7 goals and 2 assists for France, while Erling Haaland has 7 goals for Norway. Harry Kane remains in the picture on 6. That gives Messi the outright edge on goals, which is the primary criterion. The key complication is the tiebreak system. If players finish level on goals, assists decide it, and then minutes played. On that basis, Mbappé is in a strong position: his 2 assists currently give him an advantage over Messi’s 1 and Haaland’s 0 if they end tied on goals. Mbappé has also played fewer minutes than Messi, which could matter if the assist totals also level out. Haaland is very much alive in the race after his brace against Brazil, but Norway’s path looks tougher and he does not currently have the tiebreak cushion Mbappé has. He likely needs to outscore both Messi and Mbappé outright rather than rely on a tie. So the best forecast is Messi narrowly, because he already leads and Argentina are still alive. But if France make the deeper run, Mbappé may have the clearest route to overtaking him or winning on tiebreaks. Haaland is the outsider of the three, but only by a small margin given his scoring form.

3 articles · Updated · USA TODAY · Jul 6

Eight teams remain in the 2026 World Cup after the United States and Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal were eliminated Monday, completing the round of 16.
The quarterfinal field now consists of Morocco, France, Norway, England, Spain, Belgium, Argentina and Switzerland.
Sunday's last-16 results had already sent Norway and England through, with Erling Haaland scoring twice against Brazil and England surviving a heated match against Mexico.
Earlier in the knockout round, Morocco beat Portugal? France advanced past Paraguay with Kylian Mbappe's 70th-minute penalty, setting the stage for the final eight-team bracket.