Kalshi Traders Give Nasdaq-100 50% Odds of Ending 2026 Above 30,000
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 7
Kalshi Traders Give Nasdaq-100 50% Odds of Ending 2026 Above 30,000
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 7
Summary
Kalshi traders see only even odds that the Nasdaq-100 will finish 2026 above 30,000, even with the index sitting about 1% below that level in Tuesday trading.
Those muted bets reflect expectations for a cooler second half after the tech-heavy gauge already climbed about 18% this year and more than 33% from its March 30 Iran war-related low to June 2.
Kalshi pricing also implies limited upside beyond current levels: traders assign 40% odds that 2026's high tops 32,000 and about 27% odds the index reaches 33,000 by year-end.
UBS said Tuesday the broader market rally can continue, but leadership may shift away from technology as investors look beyond semiconductors and reassess the next phase of the AI trade.