Updated

Updated · Barchart · Jul 6

U.S. Soybean Export Sales Sink to 41,800 MT as May Crush Hits Record 213.1 Million Bushels

Updated

Updated · Barchart · Jul 6

U.S. Soybean Export Sales Sink to 41,800 MT as May Crush Hits Record 213.1 Million Bushels

Q: As the worst US winter wheat harvest in decades tightens supply, how soon will your grocery bill reflect the crisis?

Not immediately. For most shoppers, any wheat-driven increase is more likely to show up gradually over the next two to six months, with the clearest effects later this summer into fall. The supply squeeze is real. USDA has cut 2026 U.S. wheat production to about 1.56 billion bushels, with winter wheat down sharply and hard red winter wheat — the key class for bread flour — hit especially hard. Futures have already reacted, and the government’s season-average farm price forecast has risen to about $6.50 a bushel, well above last year. But grocery prices do not move in lockstep with futures. Wheat must pass through mills, food manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers, and the grain itself is only one part of the shelf price of bread, pasta and cereal. Packaging, labor, freight and energy often matter as much or more in the short run. That is why producer-price moves typically reach consumers with a lag. The most direct impact will be on flour, bread, pasta, cereals and baked goods. Meat, eggs and dairy could also feel some indirect pressure if higher grain costs lift feed bills, though corn remains relatively well supplied for now, which may limit that effect. So the likely pattern is modest rather than sudden: little immediate sticker shock this week, some pass-through in late summer, and a more visible effect by fall if wheat prices stay elevated and global weather problems in Europe and the U.S. continue.

3 articles · Updated · Barchart · Jul 6

USDA reported 2025/26 U.S. soybean export sales of 41,800 metric tons in the week ended June 25, the marketing-year low and a sharp sign that overseas demand remains weak.
Those sales fell 91% from the previous week and 88% from the prior four-week average, leaving soybean bulls still looking for larger Chinese purchases to revive exports.
May soybean crush reached a record 213.1 million bushels, showing strong domestic processing demand even as soybean oil demand has not been enough to stop the recent price slide.
Weather is now the next key driver: France's heat wave has hurt corn prospects, while a drier two-week pattern is forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt after heavy holiday-weekend rain.
With early July critical for U.S. corn pollination and August pivotal for soybeans, traders are watching USDA crop reports and the late-August Pro Farmer tour for the next market catalyst.