Peter Shor Warns Quantum Computers Could Break Encryption by 2031 as Migration to New Standards Accelerates
Updated
Updated · New Scientist · Jul 7
Peter Shor Warns Quantum Computers Could Break Encryption by 2031 as Migration to New Standards Accelerates
3 articles · Updated · New Scientist · Jul 7
Summary
Peter Shor said at Quantum.Tech World in Boston that quantum computers are still "toys" but could soon threaten modern encryption, even as he argued the bigger challenge is deploying defenses in time.
Shor’s 1994 algorithm showed a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could factor large numbers fast enough to crack the math behind widely used encryption protecting emails, bank transactions and medical records.
NIST has already set post-quantum cryptography standards, but Shor said implementation will be "incredibly hard" because banks, hospitals and other large institutions may need years to audit and replace vulnerable systems.
Google is targeting 2029 to complete its post-quantum migration, and a recent Trump executive order requires high-value, high-impact US government systems to do the same by 2031.
Beyond cryptography, Shor said quantum computing’s most credible uses remain relatively narrow—especially simulating molecules and some optimization problems—while truly transformative new algorithms have been hard to find.
As the quantum computing race accelerates, could billions in cryptocurrency like Bitcoin become worthless overnight?
With hackers already storing encrypted data, how can companies protect secrets from computers that don't exist yet?
Racing Against Q-Day: Timelines, Risks, and the Global Shift to Post-Quantum Cryptography by 2029
Overview
Quantum computers are rapidly approaching the ability to break today’s encryption, pushing industries and governments to speed up digital security upgrades. This urgency is driven by expert warnings and new deadlines, with Q-Day marking the point when quantum hardware can defeat current cryptography. The timeline depends on how fast quantum technology advances, making it vital for organizations to act before it’s too late. Google’s researchers have set a 2029 deadline to replace Elliptic Curve Cryptography with post-quantum solutions, highlighting the need for immediate action and ongoing updates as the threat landscape evolves.