Updated
Updated · BusinessLine · Jul 7
IEA Sees 2026 Gas Demand Falling 0.5% as U.S.-Iran Conflict Lifts LNG Prices
Updated
Updated · BusinessLine · Jul 7

IEA Sees 2026 Gas Demand Falling 0.5% as U.S.-Iran Conflict Lifts LNG Prices

3 articles · Updated · BusinessLine · Jul 7

Summary

  • Global natural gas use will drop by about 20 billion cubic metres in 2026, the IEA said, marking the third annual decline this decade after 2020 and 2022.
  • Higher prices are driving the pullback after the U.S.-Iran conflict tightened supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global LNG trade.
  • Benchmark prices surged in the second quarter: Europe's TTF averaged nearly $16 per mmBtu, up 32% year on year, while Asia's JKM spot LNG price rose 45% to $17.5.
  • Asia's gas demand already fell about 1% in the first half as utilities switched fuels, particularly from gas to coal in power generation.
  • Qatar and UAE LNG output was down almost 80% in March-June from a year earlier; the IEA said 2026 supply may stay flat overall, but could post its first annual decline since 2012 if Hormuz is not fully reopened before Q4.

Insights

Amid the Hormuz crisis, how has the global LNG market demonstrated such unexpected resilience in maintaining supply?
As Asian nations pivot back to coal, what is the ultimate price for global climate targets?
With peace talks stalled over transit fees, can diplomacy avert a global energy crisis this winter?