Researchers Put 10%-23% Odds on Locked-In AMOC Collapse as Net-Zero Delays Lift Risk to 80%
Updated
Updated · New Scientist · Jul 6
Researchers Put 10%-23% Odds on Locked-In AMOC Collapse as Net-Zero Delays Lift Risk to 80%
2 articles · Updated · New Scientist · Jul 6
Summary
Twenty-one simulations found a 10% to 23% chance the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is already committed to collapse, even under scenarios where emissions later fall to net zero.
Greenland meltwater and greenhouse-gas warming drive the risk by freshening North Atlantic waters, weakening the sinking of dense salty water that powers the current system regulating climate across Europe, Africa and the Americas.
The model put collapse odds at 10% under conservative assumptions, but at 80% if the world does not begin the path to net zero until 2100.
Even after commitment, collapse would unfold slowly: the average lag was 84 years, the earliest around 2060, though another 10 years of unabated emissions shortened that average to 57 years.
Outside experts called the work useful for risk management but said its coarse 5-degree model grid leaves large uncertainty, even as the findings add urgency to faster emissions cuts.
As the Atlantic's 'heartbeat' weakens, why are we at risk of losing the tools that monitor its final moments?
Could a dying Atlantic current trigger permanent drought in India, jeopardizing food for over a billion people?
A mini-ice age in Europe may now be inevitable. Are we simply waiting for the deep freeze to begin?
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Collapse: Scientific Alarms, Climate Consequences, and Global Response
Overview
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a fundamental pillar of the global climate system, crucial for regulating weather patterns and ocean temperatures. Recent scientific observations show that the AMOC is at its weakest point in at least 1,600 years, mainly due to the ongoing climate crisis. Experts are issuing urgent warnings about the dramatic escalation in the risk of its potential collapse, highlighting profound implications for global climate stability. This significant weakening signals an urgent reality, as the AMOC faces unprecedented threats that could lead to irreversible changes in Earth's climate system.