Updated

Updated · Big Island Video News · Jul 5

USGS Forecasts Kīlauea Episode 51 Lava Fountaining for July 9-13 as Inflation Reaches 9.3 Microradians

Updated

Updated · Big Island Video News · Jul 5

USGS Forecasts Kīlauea Episode 51 Lava Fountaining for July 9-13 as Inflation Reaches 9.3 Microradians

Q: With Kīlauea’s eruption paused, is the magma chamber building pressure for a more powerful fountaining event?

Kīlauea is rebuilding pressure, but the available data do not show that the next episode will necessarily be more powerful than recent ones. The clearest sign of recharge is summit inflation. HVO reported that the Uēkahuna tiltmeter had recovered much of the deflation from Episode 50, a standard signal that magma is refilling the shallow storage system beneath the summit. Persistent glow at both vents, low-level tremor, and ongoing gas release also show the system remains active rather than shut down. That said, HVO’s current forecast points to timing, not stronger intensity. Scientists use tilt recovery to estimate when the next fountaining episode may begin, and they have said Episode 51 is likely once inflation sufficiently recovers the previous episode’s deflation. More recent observations suggest inflation has slowed and another tiltmeter has shown some deflation, which could delay the next outbreak rather than make it larger. Nothing in the current USGS updates indicates unusual seismicity, extreme sulfur dioxide output, or other signs of a major escalation. Earthquake activity under Kaluapele remains low, and SO2 emissions are within the typical 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day range for this eruption. In short, pressure is building in the normal way for Kīlauea’s ongoing episodic summit eruption. That supports another lava-fountaining event, but not a clear expectation that it will be stronger than Episode 50 or other recent episodes.

1 articles · Updated · Big Island Video News · Jul 5

July 9-13 is the latest USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory window for Kīlauea’s next lava-fountaining burst, with episode 51 expected after the summit eruption remained paused.
9.3 microradians of tilt recovery at the Uēkahuna tiltmeter points to continued summit inflation, though HVO said slower inflation or a return to deflation could delay the onset.
Moderate to bright glow persisted overnight at the south vent, the north vent glow strengthened and became steadier, and low-level tremor continued with intermittent bursts tied to gas piston cycles.
ADVISORY remains the volcano alert level, while earthquake activity under Kaluapele stayed low and summit SO2 emissions were estimated at 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes a day.

Sources

Big Island Video News2d ago

Kīlauea Lava Fountaining Episode 51 Forecast by USGS HVO for July 9-13

With Kīlauea’s eruption paused, is the magma chamber building pressure for a more powerful fountaining event?

Why is Kīlauea defying scientific forecasts for its next lava fountain after fifty predictable cycles?

What did the 2018 summit collapse change inside Kīlauea to cause this record-breaking start-and-stop eruption?

Sources

1 total

Big Island Video News2d ago

Kīlauea Lava Fountaining Episode 51 Forecast by USGS HVO for July 9-13

USGS Forecasts Kīlauea Episode 51 Lava Fountaining for July 9-13 as Inflation Reaches 9.3 Microradians

Summary

Sources

Insights

Related Stories

Sources

Related Stories