Trump Misstates Fed Draft on Immigration and Housing, Citing 30% Claim Instead of 6.6%
Updated
Updated · The Washington Post · Jul 6
Trump Misstates Fed Draft on Immigration and Housing, Citing 30% Claim Instead of 6.6%
2 articles · Updated · The Washington Post · Jul 6
Summary
A draft Fed paper cited by Donald Trump found unauthorized immigration raised home prices about 6.6% in the average metro area from early 2021 to early 2024, not 30% as he claimed.
The economists estimated that an inflow equal to 1% of a local workforce lifted home prices 2.2% and rents 1.4%, largely because homebuilding did not increase to absorb demand.
That 6.6% effect explains roughly 30% of the 22.4% home-price growth in those markets over the period; in the typical U.S. market, the effect was smaller at about 13% of price growth and 9% of rent growth.
The draft paper, based on court records and migrant entry data, estimated unauthorized immigration added 7 million people between early 2021 and early 2024 and clustered heavily in large cities.
The study still gave the administration its first research backing on the issue, while also finding local employment rose roughly one-for-one, wages did not significantly fall, and safety-net payments dropped.