Cisco Options Price 68% Stock Range of $77.50 to $176.23 as AI Boom Meets Margin Doubts
Updated
Updated · Trefis · Jul 6
Cisco Options Price 68% Stock Range of $77.50 to $176.23 as AI Boom Meets Margin Doubts
3 articles · Updated · Trefis · Jul 6
Summary
$117.01 Cisco shares carry an options-implied 68% chance of ending the next year between about $77.50 and $176.23, pointing to a potential 33.8% drop or 50.6% gain.
41.7% implied volatility is 1.32 times Cisco’s 31.6% realized volatility and sits in the 95th percentile of its past year, showing traders are paying unusually high premiums for a big move.
AI demand is driving the upside case: Cisco said product orders rose 35% and lifted its FY26 hyperscaler AI infrastructure order forecast to about $9 billion, roughly 4.5 times FY25 levels.
Profitability and durability concerns are driving the other side of the trade, with analysts questioning whether 19% non-AI order growth was pulled forward and product gross margin slipping to 64.3% on mix and memory costs.
Options positioning still leans mildly bullish, with upside calls costing about 1.5 times as much as downside protection, but the pricing underscores unusually high uncertainty around Cisco’s next year.