Scientists Put Earth's Last Plant at 1.87 Billion Years Away as Sun Brightens 20%
Updated
Updated · ScienceAlert · Jul 6
Scientists Put Earth's Last Plant at 1.87 Billion Years Away as Sun Brightens 20%
2 articles · Updated · ScienceAlert · Jul 6
Summary
A new modeling study estimates Earth's vegetative biosphere could survive up to 1.87 billion more years, roughly until the planet begins losing its water.
Two simulations produced different kill mechanisms: strong weathering drove atmospheric CO2 low enough to end plant life in 1.84 billion years, while weak weathering let temperatures climb to about 65C, pushing the limit to 1.87 billion years.
The researchers said the longer timeline exceeds many earlier estimates because their 3D climate model tested how solar brightening and the carbonate-silicate cycle interact over the next 2 billion years.
The estimate is not a hard endpoint because the model excludes biological evolution and technological intervention, both of which could let plants persist longer on Earth or spread beyond it.