Three new studies point to Thwaites Glacier’s ice shelf disintegrating within one year, a shift that would let the glacier behind it flow faster into the sea.
The research ties that timeline to under-ice melting as tides pump warmer ocean water beneath the shelf twice daily, while eddies and feedback loops accelerate the loss.
Scientists say the glacier’s full breakup would still unfold over decades to a century, but newer data increasingly match the more extreme collapse models.
Thwaites matters because it appears to be driven by marine ice sheet instability rather than ice-cliff failure, making it a major test of how fast Antarctic ice loss can accelerate.
Antarctic warmth has added to concern: some locations were reported up to 36°F above normal in winter, reinforcing warnings that cutting carbon pollution is critical.
Thwaites Glacier's collapse is projected for next year. Are our models underestimating the speed of this global threat?
If cutting emissions won't save the 'Doomsday Glacier', what is the plan for the committed 3-meter sea-level rise?
The Doomsday Glacier Crisis: How Thwaites’ Imminent Ice Shelf Collapse Could Raise Sea Levels by 65 cm
Overview
The Thwaites Glacier's eastern ice shelf is on the verge of breaking away, with its collapse expected by mid-2027. This event will significantly accelerate the glacier’s overall demise, leading to further destabilization. If the Thwaites Glacier fully collapses, it could cause a global sea-level rise of 2.1 feet, posing a severe risk to coastal communities worldwide. Recent studies have detected hundreds of glacial seismic events, highlighting the glacier’s increasing instability. The imminent detachment of the eastern ice shelf marks a critical turning point, signaling urgent challenges for global sea levels and vulnerable populations.